That Dog Statistically Unlikely to Hunt

Today, the 18-member National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility holds its first meeting. The commission, a product of an executive order earlier this year by President Obama, is charged with making recommendations to Congress about how to reduce the size of the federal budget deficit in the long term. The first set of recommendations is due in December - pretty soon, but safely after the November elections. The President has said that every option has to be put on the table.

While the commission's recommendations are non-binding (i.e., Congress can ignore them), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) have pledged to bring the recommendations up for debate in their respective chambers once they are made.

Here's the rub - I'm not convinced that this commission is going to ever make recommendations. The commission was intentionally designed to be bipartisan. Six members were appointed by the President - four Democrats and two Republicans. The Senate Majority Leader Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) each appointed three members. Speaker Pelosi and House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) each appointed three members. 18 members - 10 Democrats and 8 Republicans.* Reuters has brief bios on each, here: http://bit.ly/bsw4qW.

By presidential mandate, however, 14 of the 18 (78%) members have to agree on a set of recommendations. This is a higher hurdle than is necessary to stop a filibuster in the Senate (60%) or even to override a presidential veto (67% in both chambers). Surely though, 18 bright, concerned, leaders can come together around a set of principles and recommendations, right? I doubt it.

The president's picks strike me as pretty well rounded. The two co-chairs, former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles and former Republican Senator Alan Simpson are noted for their independence and moderation. I can also see the other four Administration nominees finding places to agree. The problem is that the other 12 members are all sitting Members of Congress, dominated, in particular, by ideologues and partisans. These folks know how to argue and they know how to disagree. I'm not sure they know well how to make compromises and find agreement.

A more successful scenario would have been for the partisan make-up and the appointers (the president plus party leaders in Congress) to have been the same, but for sitting members of Congress to be banned from being appointed. Then we might actually see a set of recommendations in December. Right now, count me skeptical.

*The original version of this post stated that the commission consisted of nine Democrats and nine Republicans. In fact, Democrats hold a slight majority because four of President Obama's six appointees are Democrats.

This Post does not have any comments.

Add a new Comment