Published by: Shawn Gremminger on 4/2/2010 10:29:11 AM
No sooner had the new landmark heath care reform bill been signed into law than conservative lawmakers and opinion leaders began calling for its repeal. Just two days after the bill was enacted, Rep. Steve King (R-IA), an outspoken critic of the new law, introduced a one-page bill to repeal the law. His bill has already attracted 40 cosponsors. For the thousands of us who worked for more than a year to help shape the law, the prospect of its repeal is unsettling, to say the least. But will it really happen?
The answer is "unlikely."
While talking about a repeal may be good politics for conservatives now, there are four central reasons why it is highly improbable: Votes, the Veto, Timing and Human Nature.
1. Votes: Democrats hold significant majorities in both chambers of Congress. Indeed, their majority in the House is the largest for either party in nearly two decades and their majority in the Senate is the largest since the mid-1970s. Nearly every midterm election results in significant losses for the party that controls the White House. Judging by the public opinion polls, this year will be no exception. To be clear, Democrats are likely to lose a significant number of seats in November. But, with the large margins they currently have, will they lose their majorities? It is possible, but probably not likely at this point.
Let's assume that Republicans do manage to sweep into power in both the House and Senate. Even under the most rosy scenarios for Republicans, their margins in both chambers will be slim, and there is no way they will hold 60 votes in the Senate, the number necessary to cut off Democratic filibusters and pass legislation. In this scenario, the only way to try to repeal (parts of) health reform would be for Republicans to pass legislation under budget reconciliation rules - an ironic choice, given their rhetoric in the last several months.
2. The Veto: Yet, even that wouldn't be enough, since Barack Obama will still be the president in 2011. He would undoubtably veto any legislation to repeal all or part of the health reform bill. Overriding a veto requires a 2/3 majority in both chambers of Congress, an unattainable goal for Republicans.
3. Timing: Which brings us to timing. The only way Republicans could hope to successfully repeal health reform would be to wait until after the 2012 election, winning both chambers of Congress and the White House. Only then is a repeal a realistic scenio. However, by time the 112th Congress convenes in January of 2013, much of the reform bill will have already been implemented. The dramatic expansion of health coverage - providing coverage to 30 million people - will be just a year away. Will a new Republican president and a resurgent Republican Congress really want to focus on legislation to deny coverage to vulnerable people?
4. Human Nature: Health reform is the talk of the town in DC in the Spring of 2010. More than any other issue, it has rallied the conservative grassroots movement (read: "Tea Party") against the Administration and the Democratic Congress. Do we really think that this is going to be the case in three years? It is possible that it will, but past history suggests otherwise. If the Tea Party movement is meaningful three years from now - a big if - does it not seem more likely that the movement will be focused on newer, more pressing, issues?
Thus, a full or partial repeal of health reform would require several seemingly unlikely steps: healthy Republican majorities in Congress, a Republican president, and the willingness of Republicans to make repeal of health reform a major legislative effort three years from now - a political lifetime.