Study Projects Health Reform’s Impact on National Health Spending - August 2, 2011

A study published in the journal Health Affairs finds that national health spending grew at a historically low rate of 3.9 percent in 2010 largely due to the economic recession. Authored by eight professionals from the federal Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services Office of the Actuary, the study projects that overall health care for the period 2010 through 2020 will grow by an average of 5.8 percent per year under health reform implementation, compared to a projected 5.7 percent per year without health reform. By 2020, the study also projects 30 million newly insured individuals under health reform. Expanded Medicaid and private insurance coverage under the Affordable Care Act are expected to increase demand significantly for physician and clinical services and for prescription drugs. Any potential savings from delivery system reforms and innovations were not included in the authors’ projections.