Holding Pattern for Health Reform - November 17, 2009

With the House having passed its health reform legislation on November 7 and Senate action awaiting a cost estimate by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the health reform process is in a temporary holding pattern. It remains unclear when the CBO will finish its score, but the expectation is that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) will entertain a motion to proceed with debate as soon as possible once the bill is ready and the score is released. The motion will require a 60-vote majority, meaning that Senator Reid will have to rely on the support of the entire Democratic caucus to even begin debate. The length of the actual debate is also unclear, but observers in Washington are becoming increasingly skeptical that the President could sign a health reform bill before the end of the calendar year. A more achievable goal might be for the Senate to pass its version by the end of the year, setting up a conference committee and final vote on a compromise bill early in 2010.